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Ukraina gali neteikti TVF paramos

Apie Ukrainą daug kalbėjau savo webloge, labai atidžiai įvykius seka pasaulio žiniasklaida. Ir ne veltui - turiu įtarimą, kad šioje valstybėje pasaulinė krizė smogs labai stipriai. Ukraina vis dar labai priklausoma nuo importuojamų energetinių išteklių, o gamyba nemodernizuota, paslaugos orientuotas tik į šalies vidų. Jei/Kuomet užsienio investuotojai išsiiminės pinigus, valstybė gali tiesiog sugriūti iš vidaus.

Šiandien teko skaityti, jog Ukraina gali neteikti ir TVF paramos. Argi nekeista - ką tik neseniai TVF’as paskiria Ukrainai 16,4 milijardų dolerių gelbėjimosi planą, o dabar kalba visai kitaip. Mano nuomone - visiškai nekeista, netgi labai tikėtinas scenarijus. Juk TVF suteikia paskolą su tam tikromis sąlygomis, kaip pvz. biudžeto deficitos sumažinimas iki tam tikro lygio, arba valiutos devalvacija, t.t. Taigi, TVF vadovai atidžiai stebi situaciją valstybėje, stebi žingsnius, reformas, bet esmė paprasta: sąlygų nesilaikai - pinigų negauni.

Su vienu kolega diskutavome apie Latvijos pasirinktą kelią iš krizės - būtent per TVF paskolą. Ir iškilo akivaizdūs klausimai - o kaip Latvija sugebės grąžinti paskolą? Ir dar - ar ne per daug Latvija įsipareigojo pagal sutartį su TVF? Jau rašiau, jog Latvija tikriausiai įsipareigojo labai labai daug. Latvijoje reformos bus itin stiprios. O TVF juk paskolą suteikia ne viena didele išmoka, o dalimis. Ir tik tada, kai valstybei tikrai reikia. Ir tik tada, jeigu valstybė laikosi sutartyje numatytų sąlygų. O kas bus, jeigu Latvijai nepavyks pasiekti užsibrėžtų costcutting planų?

PS: Vienas iš svetainės skaitytojų parašė man emailą, kuriame paklausė: “o kas atsitiks, jei Latvija per x metų nesugebės grąžinti TVF paskolos? Negi TVF’as privatizuos Latviją?” Gal yra norinčių atsakyti?..

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Komentarai (780)

  1. Petras:

    Na, Argentina yra defaultinus ant IMF paskolos 2002-ais berods. Restruktūrizavo paskolą ir gavo naują paramą, pasikeitus vyriausybei.

    http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/argentina_2002_09_03.pdf

  2. fin:

    Tai vat, kaip ir problemos nėra :)))))

  3. aa:

    pikti zmones kalba, kad ukraina jau slapta uzsitikrino 5bn parama is rusijos. gal nuolaidos, kurias turejo padaryti, ne tokios baisios kaip imf salygos?

  4. aa:

    pikti zmones kalba, kad ukraina jau slapta uzsitikrino 5bn parama is rusijos. gal nuolaidos, kurias turejo padaryti, ne tokios baisios kaip imf salygos?

  5. fin:

    Teisingai aa sako. Su tokiomis valstybėmis kaip Ukraina, Rusija, t.t. niekada nebūna aiškios situacijos. Sausio mėnesį didžiausi priešai, kovoja dėl dujų, užtenka Timoshenko nuvykti, 'sutvarkyti reikaliukus', ir jau milijardus siūlo. Ech!

  6. georgijus:

    ukrainos kelias tik vienas i Rusijos itakos zona. ir kuo ilgiau bandys riesti kietus, tuo ilgesne bus agonija ir pigesnis isiliejimas i Ru itakos zona.
    kas liecia latvius, tai teko ten pabuvot visai nesenai, pabendraut su zmonem. ten visiska shikna… zmonem issakaiciuoja TVF skola. pazistamas kas men. atseikeja nuo algos po 15 latu… sake yra ivestas atskiras mokestinis punktas paskolos TVF grazinimas… o alga ir taip ne fontanai… baisiausia, dar ne tai.. baisiausia, kad beveik puse gyventoju neturi pasu, tad pusiau laisvai gali judeti tik po Es, kitur net noredami isvykti gyventi, kad ir grizti i RU negali nes niekas neduoda pasu… todel ir vergauja visi TVF…o tai jau ziauru. todel ukrainai tikrai geresnis kelias tvarkyti reikaliukus su RU, nei nertis TVF siuloma kilpa ant kaklo…

  7. georgijus:

    atsakymas i p.s. uzduota klausima, niekas nieko neprivatizuos… jau kaip ir rasiau auksciau visi "draugiskai" vergauja TVF uz paskola ir kiekvienam dirbancia yra isskaitoma suma X, kuri eina ismoketi paskola… pirmiausia kaupiami pinigai fonde, tada bus pervedami TVF…

  8. Tikiuosi mūsų valstybėlei taip smarkiai nesmoks tai.

  9. bet vistiek: ar yra sutartyje numatytos sąlygos, kokios priemonės bus panaudotos, jei tam tikra valstybė iki tam tikro laiko neatiduos "paskolos" ?

    tarkim latvija prisiima įsipareigojimų; kurį laiką juos sėkmingai vykdo, bet poto tarkim nebepavyksta jiems dar labiau sumažint valdžios išlaidų, ir prasideda dar didesnis byrėjimas. Tada TVF'as nebeduoda pinigų daugiau, aceit, nevykdot sąlygų - negausit pinigų. čia viskas kaip ir ok. o kaip tada su tais pinigais, kuriuos JAU gavo latvija? :) labai jau daug neaiškumų su tuo tvf'u, o ir spaudoj kažkaip nelabai yra paaiškinimų, kas tas tvf'as , lyg tai būtų koks tai mistinis padaras, su kapšu pinigų, kurių visada turi… :)

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