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Zlotas nokdaune

Mano kolega Mačiejus (tai tikrai egzistuojantis žmogus, gyvenantis Lenkijoje, vardas nepakeistas, red. past.) ketino vasarą pirkti naują sportinį automobilį, iš JAV. Visos sąlygos buvo tam palankios - Lenkijos ekonomika sparčiai augo ir augino Mačiejaus atlyginimą, JAV dolerio kursas buvo žiauriose žemumose, ir netgi Lenkijos zlotas buvo labai sustiprėjęs, lyginant su EUR. Tai reiškia, kad Lenkijos pirkėjo atžvilgiu doleris buvo nukritęs netgi daugiau, nei Lietuvos pirkėjo atžvilgiu. Buvo rojus žemėje įsigyti laptopus, iPodus ir keliauti po JAV.

Deja, kol jis rinkosi ir žvalgėsi, pasaulis pasikeitė. Pasikeitė tiek, kad jo automobilio kainą daugiau nei padvigubėjo. Skaičiuojant zlotais. JAV doleriais ji liko nepakitusi, tačiau kylantis doleris (euro atžvilgiu) ir krentantis zlotas (euro atžvigliu) ženkliai apribojo Mačiejaus galimybes. Tokiomis dienomis džiaugiuosi, jog lito kursas pririštas!

Na, tikrai gaila Mačiejaus. Tiesa, ne visi šia širdgėla su manimi dalijasi. Viena kolegė iš FAA, diskusijos metu teigė, jog zlotas buvo pastaruoju metu labai stipriai užkilęs, todėl jo kritimas yra tiesiog natūrali korekcija. Tuomet diskusijos objektas buvo lito kurso patikimumas, ir aš ginčijau, kad jeigu jau Vengrijoje ir Lenkijoje taip stipriai krinta valiuta, ar iš tiesų Lietuva išskirtinė, ir gali tikėtis, jog esamas valiutos paritetas teisingas? Kiek suabejojau, galbūt išties ji teisi.

Sudariau grafikiuką, kurį šiandien papildžiau šios dienos kursu. Reikia paminėti, jog ši savaitė buvo itin pikta zloto kursui. Danske Markets gražių epitetų neieško - Zloty gets hammered. Vien per šią savaitę zloto kursas euro atžvilgiu krito 7 procentais, o nuo rupgjūčio vidurio - net 30 procentų. Turint omenyje, kad Lenkijoje (kaip ir Lietuvoje) didžioji dalis valstybės, verslo ir fizinių asmenų paskolų yra užsienio valiuta (EUR, Šveicarijos frankai), galima daryti prielaidą, kad tai jų nedžiugina.

Grafikiukas rodo EURLTL ir EURPLN kursus (santykinius, t.y. prilygintus 100 proc. periodo pradžioje). Juo bandau parodyti, jog žvelgiant nuo 2002 metų, zlotas iš pradžių silpnėjo, tačiau vėliau jo perkamoji galia augo ir net pralenkė lito galią. Tačiau pastarųjų mėnesių įvykiai vėl apvertė viską aukštyn kojom, ir kol kas lito perkamoji galia (pagal esamus valiutos kursus) nemažai stiprėsnė.

PS: Grafikas galbūt nėra itin reprezentatyvus, nes pradinę datą (2002) pasirinkau pakankamai atsitiktinai; galbūt reikėtų žvelgti per ilgesnį periodą.

PAPILDYMAS: Vakar dienos pabaigoje išėjo labai labai liūdni Lenkijos gamybos kritimo skaičiai, kurie patvirtina, jog Lenkijoje jau prasidėjo recesija, ir kažkiek padeda suprasti, kodėl taip stipriai krenta valiuta. Danske Markets report'as.

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Komentarai (355)

  1. Tai koks dabar euro - zloto oficialus kursas? Kiek už eurą keitykloj gausiu zlotų? Je nesunku.

  2. fin:

    Deja, reikės net 4.20 zlotukų, idant vieną eurą nusipirkti.

    http://www.pkobp.pl/index.php/id=waluty/section=ogol

  3. scorps:

    tas zlotas mane zudo. is kitos puses - su sventem! :)

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