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Latvijos kredito reitingas - žemiau investicinio lygmens

Netgi keista, kad pastaroji naujiena nesulaukė didesnio Baltijos šalių žiniasklaidos dėmesio. Aišku, ką tik atsistatydinusi Latvijos vyriausybė nusipelnė visų “pirmų puslapių”, tačiau toks faktas, kaip kredito reitingo sumažėjimas iki “junk” lygio pats savaime yra grėsmingas faktas mūsų šiaurinės kaimynės ekonomikai. Blogiausia aišku tai, jog reitingų agentūros ir mums, ir estams grasina tuo pačiu, ir nelabai matau galimybių to išvengti.

Taigi, Standard & Poor's sumažino Latvijos skolinimosi reitingą iki BB+/B. Normaliame pasaulyje tai reikštų, jog Latvijos vyriausybei teks brangiau skolintis atvirose rinkose, kompensuojant už išaugusią kredito defaulto riziką. Kita vertus, šiandien pasaulis nėra normalus, ir Latvija net ir su geresniu reitingu nelabai rado iš kur pasiskolinti, todėl šis reitingų sumažinimas labiau yra faktinės situacijos konstatavimas. Aišku, kuomet S&P prognozuoja, jog Latvijos ekonomika susitrauks 12 procentų, kažko kito tikėtis ir neverta. Klausimas tik ant kurio laiptelio reitingas stabilizuosis. Ukrainos reitingas, jeigu neklystu, jau keturi laipteliai žemiau investicinio lygmens. Hmm…

Tačiau pasaulyje kalbama apie didžiųjų valstybių kredito reitingus. Ką daryti kredito agentūroms, kai perskaito naujienas, jog Japonijos eksportas nukrito 45,7 procento, arba kad Prancūzijos gamintojų pasitikėjimo indeksas užfiksuotas žemiausiame lygyje nuo tada, kai pradėtas skaičiuoti. Ką daryti su šių valstybių kredito reitingais?

UPDATE: Na, nebuvau visiškai teisus, sakydamas, kad reitingo sumažinimas liko nepastebėtas. Kaip pažymi Baltic Economy Watch, šį efektą iš karto pajuto Švediškos kronos kursas, kuris pakrito apie 4 procentus. Matyt pasaulis daug stipriau vertina Baltijos šalių grėsmę Skandinavijos ekonominei gerovei, nei mes ar patys skandinavai nori pripažinti.

Rodyk draugams

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