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Kuo panašūs Ms. Jones ir Mikhail Prokhorov?

Praėjusių metų pabaigoje bevartant mėgstamą The Economist žurnalą, užtikau aukščiau pavaizduotą karikatūra. Prisipažinsiu, ji man labai patiko. Mat keli pastarieji metai, kuomet aktyviai dirbai su kapitalo rinkomis, buvo itin sėkmingi investuojantiems ir nebijantiems rizikos. Rezultatai buvo tokie geri, kad didžioji dauguma jaunųjų Lietuvos finansų ekspertų ir patarėjų manė esantys super-spec rinkų žinovai. (Who?.. Me?…)  Atėjusi krizė, kuri su savimi atnešė didįjį rinkų kritimą, nuleido visus ant žemės. Ne tik jaunuosius Lietuvos finansų ekspertus, bet ir senuosius  nemažai mačiusius pasaulio finansų ekspertus. Visiems it šlapiu skuduru tvojo didžiuliai nuostoliai, margin call’ai ir kiti nemalonūs momentai.

Rinkos pokyčiai buvo tokie staigūs ir neprognozuojami, kad iš tikrųjų pinigų prarado visi. Laimėjo tokie kaip Mrs. Jones, kurie pinigus laikė kojinėje/taupyklėje/čiužinyje. Deja, negaliu pasakyti, kad ši strategija pasiteisins ir ateinančiais metais, nes niekas nebesiryžta prognozuoti, kaip pasaulis atrodys 2010, 2011 metais. Bet pernai ji tikrai veikė.

Ponią Džouns prisiminiau vakar skaitydamas apie Rusijos oligarchus, kurie kaip rudeniniai lapai iškrito iš turtingiausių sąrašo. Štai pavyzdžiui Oleg Deripaska, prieš metus buvęs turtingiausias Rusijos pilietis su 40 milijardų JAV dolerių turtu, šiemet jau tegali pasigirti 4.9 milijardų turtu, be to karšligiškai ieško būdų restruktūrizuoti savo milijardines skolas. Tiesa, per šiuos metus Rusijos ekonomika toliau sminga kaip pamuštas lėktuvas, tad matyt jau ir tų milijardų yra mažiau. Nekokie laikai ir Chelsea savininkui Romanui Abramovičiui - gandai sklando, kad teks jam aukoti vieną iš dviejų savo mėgstamiausių žaisliukų - futbolo klubą arba prabangiąją jachtą.

Tačiau įdomiausia tai, jog į pirmą vietą turtingiausių pakilo Mikhail Prokhorov, turintis viso labo 14,1 milijardą JAV dolerių. Pasirodo, šis gudruolis prieš pat krizę pardavė didžiąją dalį savo turėto turto, tame tarpe ir 25 procentų akcijų paketą Norilsk Nikel, kurį nupirko jau minėtas Deripaska. Na, gudrumas galbūt įgimtas, o galbūt “iš reikalo”: kalbama, kad Prokhorov’as stipriai susipyko su kitu oligarchu Lebedev’u, o aukščiausiasis valstybės asmuo ministras pirmininkas Putin’as palaikė būtent Lebedev’o pusę. Prokhorov’ui buvo pagrasinta mokesčių patikrinimais, ir galima sakyti jį “išstūmė”, priversdami parduoti akcijas. Na, niekas nežino, kaip ten tiksliai buvo, bet todėl tai ir vadinama gandais.

Taigi, ne savo noru tavęs ponu Džouns, Prokhorov’as tapo turtingiausiu Rusijos žmogumi. Enciklopedijose prie žodžio “ironija” nuo šiol turėtų kabėti jo portretas su didžiule šypsena.

 

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