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Ką apie Latvijos gelbėjimosi planą mano užsienio ekspertai

Gruodžio viduryje Latvijos vyriausybė sutarė su Tarptautiniu valiutos fondu (TVF), ES bei keliais kitais skolininkas dėl finansavimo. Iš viso paketas sudaro 7,5 milijardus eurų. Mes, aišku, turėtume džiaugtis, jog gelbėjami mūsų kaimynai, ir ypatingai džiaugtis, jog tarp finansavimo gavimo sąlygų nėra reikalavimo devalvuoti Latvijos valiutą. Ach, kaip gražiai skamba:

“It (the programme) is centered on the authorities’ objective of
maintaining the current exchange rate peg, recognizing that this calls
for extraordinarily strong domestic policies, with the support of a
broad political and social consensus,” said IMF Managing Director
Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

Deja, kaip pastebi užsienio ekspertai, Strauss-Kahn’o žodžiuose slypti frazė “extraordinarily strong domestic policies”, kuri gali reikšti, jog Latvijai palikta galimybė išlaikyti valiutos kursą tik pažadėjus (ir įsipareigojus) ypatingai stipriai “susiveržti diržą”. Jau savo kailiu patiriame, jog tokia valstybės politika yra labai skausminga, nemaloni ir iššaukianti didelį gyventojų nepasitenkinimą. Tačiau Lietuva kol kas vykdo programą minimum, o jeigu Latvijai bus įjungtas maximum rėžimas?

Yra ir kitų problemu dėl pasirinkto Latvijos kelio. Daug apie tai kontempliuoti nenoriu, nes nesu užsienio ekspertas. Na, šiuo atveju esu beveik “užsienio”, tačiau vis tiek nesu “ekspertas”. Pateikiu nuorodas į keletą įdomių straipsnių šia tema. Taip pat labai įdomūs yra komentarai, ypač iš CRE šalyse gyvenančių ekspertų. Gero skaitymo:

A Fistful of Euros: Why The IMF’s Decision To Agree A Lavian Bailout Programme Without Devaluation Is A Mistake
Bronte Capital: Hookers that still cost too much - some comments on the IMF and Latvia
Paul Krugman: Latvia is the new Argentina (slightly wonkish)
Alpha.Sources: IMF and the Baltics

Rodyk draugams

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