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Bedarbystės banga


Krizės akimirkoje, mažesnės ir ypač emerging’esnės valstybės susiduria su trejomis labai piktomis realijomis: biudžeto išsibalansavimas (turim ir Lietuvoje), valiutos kurso kritimas (neturim, nes esame “prištampuoti”) ir bedarbystės augimas. Kol kas Lietuvoje prognozuojamas pakankamai konservatyvus šio rodiklio augimas, tačiau jau ir šiandien aišku, kad nemažai darbo vietų prarasta statybų, medienos, finansų sektoriuose, taip pat darbuotojų skaičių mažina mažmeninės prekybos ir viešojo maitinimo įmonės. Kaip galima spręsti iš situacijos kitose valstybėse, manau, pajusime tikrai didelį šio rodiklio augimą - ir visus susijusius nemalonumus, kaip nusikalstatumo augimas, riaušės, ir t.t.

Ūkio ministerija rašo, jog “2008 m. spalio 1 d. teritorinėse darbo biržose buvo registruota 95,5 tūkst. ieškančių darbo asmenų, iš ju bedarbio statusą turėjo 65,2 tukstančio.” Deja, tame pačiame leidinyje rašoma jog, “Per 2008 m. sausio – rugsėjo mėn. buvo iregistruota 78,4 tukst. laisvu darbo vietu neterminuotam darbui. Tai 16,7 proc. arba 15,7 tukst. vietu mažiau negu 2007 m. tuo pačiu laikotarpiu.” Na, nėra dėl ko labai jaudintis. Tačiau štai Lietuvos darbo birža skelbia, jog “Šių metų sausio 23 dieną darbo ieškojo apie 142 tūkst. asmenų.” Taigi, per kelis mėnesius šis rodiklis išaugo apie 50%.

Einant “šiauriau”, Eurostat duomenimis, Estijoje nedarbo lygis išaugo iki 9,2 procentų, iki 75,4 tūkstančių bedarbių. Mes už estus esame 2.5 karto didesni, taigi nedarbo lygis kol kas pas mus žemesnis. Skaičiai pateikiami metų pabaigai, straipsnis apie tai čia.

Situacija tikrai prastėja, kuomet pradedame mąstyti apie didesnes valstybes. Pastarųjų kelių dienų naujienų taikyklyje esanti Rusija paskelbė, jog vien per gruodžio mėnesį darbą prarado 800.000 žmonių. Nedarbo lygis pakilo iki 5,8 milijonų, kas sudaro 7,7 procentus skaičiuojant darbingus žmones, tačiau stulbina ne pats dydis, o darbo netekimo greitis. Per vieną mėnesį - aštuonis šimtai tūkstančių.

Ispanijoje nedarbas sudaro virš 14 procentų, o didžiausioje Europos ekonomikoje Vokietijoje per gruodžio mėnesį darbo neteko 387,000 žmonių (tiesa, tai yra sezoniškai nepasverti duomenys), tačiau naujai sukurtų darbo vietų lygis sumažėjo beveik iki nulio. Kitaip tariant, nėra ekonomikos sektorių, kurie krizę perneštų lengviau, ir galėtų prisidėti prie darbo migracijos šalies viduje. Prasti popieriai. Tokiomis akimirkomis tenka prisiminti Keynes’ą ir JAV prezidentą F.D. Roosveltą, kurie Didžiosios krizės metu skatino didinti valstybės išlaidas, kurti darbo vietas, net jei jos ir nesukuria jokios pridėtinės vertės. Prezidentu išrinktas viduryje didžiulio nedarbo bei gresiančios eilinės krizės, jis tarė: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”. Kitaip tariant, reikia tikėti, kad žemiausias taškas jau pasiektas, o kelias į atsigavimą yra per paprasto darbininko kišenę; jeigu jis turės darbą ir tikės, jog krizė pasibaigė, jisai padės užsukti sugedusį ekonomikos variklį.

Na, ir finalizuojant galime paminėti Indiją, kurioje vien per gruodžio mėnesį darbo neteko 1.000.000 žmonių. Tikrai baisūs skaičiai. Bet vėlgi, Indija pagal gyventojų skaičių lenkia Rusiją aštuonis kartus, taigi pritaikius Rusijos darbo praradimo rodiklį Indijos ekonomikai, tai reikštų 6,4 milijonų žmonių nedarbą.

Preliminariais duomenimis, International Labour Organization prognozuoja, kad darbo neteks arba jau neteko 51 milijonas pasaulio gyventojų. Tokiu atveju pasaulinis nedarbo lygis pasieks 7,1 procentą. Taigi, ko mes galime tikėtis Lietuvoje?

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